Mike Seidle ...notes from the road

After looking over the stages of this year's Tour, I thought I'd share a little of what I expect to see. This year's tour has a couple of interesting stories:

Who will get DQ'd for doping? The last few years have taught us to expect the unexpected. 

How strong is Lance? If you listen to Lance, he's not in form. If you listen to everyone else, Lance is never in form until a crushing mountain stage. We'll get an early idea as we hit the montains in Stage 7.

The Spainyards: Contador, Pierero and Carlos Sastre are all the favorites this year. Some of this is due to the Tour focusing on lots of mountain stages and having diminished the importance of the equalizer: the individual time trial. I've always thought Pierero is overrated... but anyone who has won
before is certainly a strong, strong rider

Stages 1-6: Beautiful scenery, little intrigue. Anyone who has health problems or injury will wash out, but that's about it.

Stage 7: This is the stage for Lance Armstrong watchers. Andorre-la-Vieille is the first mountain stage and is also a mountain top finish - the exact kind of stage that Armstrong has used crush opponents in the past. We'll see how strong Lance is. A strong finish by Armstrong and Tour favorite and Armstrong teammate Contador will have problems.

Stage 8: More mountains.

Stage 9: Saint Gadens-Tarbes - great clibs early but a huge descent leading to a finish is ideal for riders looking to make a bid for the Yellow Jersey early This is the gambler's stage of this tour.

Stage 10, 11: Flat stages... not important to the standings (but important to the sprinters.

Stage 12:Interesting stage Lots of points up for sprinters and climbers, but should not have any dramatic effect for the G.C. 

Stage 13: Very little flat land, lots of climbs, should be the beginning of the real tour.

Stage 14: Rolling stage... prelude to the best part of the Tour - the Alps.


Stage 15: Pontarlier-Verbier - aka the Real Race Part I: A serious mountain stage with a mountaintop finish This should favor Contador & Sastre, and if he's in form, Armstrong If Armstrong is riding as he has in the past, this will be the stage to watch.

Stage 16: Martingny-Bourg Saint Maurice: Pure climb stage ending on a very fast descent High potential for accidents and shakeouts in the peloton.

Stage 17: Le Grand Bornand - aka the Real Race Part III: This stage looks to be the decisive stage where the sheer number of climbs will create opportunities to seperate
The stage absolutely favors climbers, and will leave little doubt as to who the favorites are.

Stage 18: Annecy Time Trial - When I used to ride I lived for individual time trials. This time trial is not placed in it's traditional place, just after the Alps stages, so it should not shake things up other than giving weaker climbers a chance to make up lost time or to open a small gap prior to
Stage 20. It will be interesting to see how riders take this - all out or guarded, knowing that Mont Ventoux is waiting to erase time gained in this stage...

Stage 19: Some hills... an appitizer to the five courses of pain, broken dreams and defeat that Stage 20 will serve.

Stage 20: Mont Ventoux: The final act: Unless someone creates a 5-7 minute gap in the GC, the 2009 tour will not be decided until the decisive climb to Mont Ventoux. It's
a blistering stage through the hills, followed by a decisive, steep 21.6KM climb - a strong rider can gain 4-7 minuts on the final climb alone. It's a legendary stage, and we should see a fast, desperate climb to the finish. Mont Ventoux has been crucial to Tour greats Felice Gimondi, Eddy Merckx and Lance Armstrong. This year's victor will be
beyond doubt after this stage.

Stage 21: aka the big parade: Always fun
to watch, but never important to the final standings.

Prediction:  Armstrong if he's anywhere near form... otherwise, it's Contador and Sastre with Contador having a much stronger team.